In a significant diplomatic move, India issued a formal notice to Pakistan on August 30, 2024, seeking a comprehensive review and modification of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. The notice, sent under Article XII (3) of the Treaty, calls for reassessing the terms that govern the sharing of the Indus River waters between the two countries. This marks the most serious challenge to the Treaty since its inception, highlighting India’s growing frustration with Pakistan’s handling of key projects and the evolving geopolitical environment.
Key Concerns Behind India’s Move
The concerns prompting India’s decision span several critical areas, all of which underline the obsolescence of the current treaty framework. According to sources, India’s notification emphasized three major issues:
- Changing Population Demographics and Agricultural Demand: Over the decades since the Treaty’s signing, significant population growth and changing agricultural demands in India have altered the water needs. The existing agreement does not reflect these evolving realities, necessitating a reassessment of the water-sharing terms.
- Clean Energy Development: With India’s increasing focus on meeting its emission reduction targets, the need for accelerated hydropower development has grown. The current provisions of the Treaty, especially Pakistan’s opposition to Indian hydropower projects like Ratle and Kishenganga, have slowed down clean energy development, posing a serious obstacle to India’s sustainability goals.
- Cross-Border Terrorism: The persistent issue of cross-border terrorism from Pakistan, particularly in the Jammu and Kashmir region, has impeded the smooth implementation of the Treaty. India believes that these security concerns have undermined its ability to fully utilize its water rights under the Treaty, further straining the relationship.
Long-standing Disputes Over Hydropower Projects
The current move comes against the backdrop of ongoing disputes over the Ratle and Kishenganga hydel projects, which Pakistan has continuously opposed. Indian officials accuse Pakistan of deliberately obstructing every water-related project on the Indian side, exploiting the Treaty’s framework to slow down India’s development efforts. The controversy reached a tipping point when the World Bank activated both the Neutral Expert mechanism and the Court of Arbitration, creating confusion and further complicating the situation.
In its communication, the Indian Government has pointed out that the Treaty’s dispute resolution mechanism is outdated and inadequate for addressing contemporary issues. This, they argue, is another reason why the Treaty needs urgent modification.
Rising Domestic Sentiment for Treaty Reassessment
The call for reviewing the Indus Waters Treaty has also been gaining traction domestically, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir, where local populations feel that their water rights were given away without proper consultation. Similar sentiments exist in Punjab and Haryana, regions that stand to benefit from new water projects if the Treaty is revised.
Experts believe that the Indian Government’s decision reflects a broader frustration not just with Pakistan’s intransigence on water-sharing but also its continued support for terrorism. The Treaty, many argue, was signed with an overly optimistic view of Indo-Pak relations, which subsequent decades of hostility have shattered.
Modi Government’s Determination to Correct “Historical Mistakes”
Sources confirmed that the decision to send the modification notice was made after extensive deliberations within the Indian Government. The Modi administration is reportedly determined to address what it sees as historical errors made during the Treaty’s creation, particularly in light of Pakistan’s consistent opposition to India’s water projects and continued hostility.
The move signals a major shift in India’s diplomatic stance, as it pushes for a more equitable and practical approach to water-sharing, one that reflects current realities and India’s future development needs.
India’s demand for a revision of the Treaty sets the stage for a potentially contentious negotiation process with Pakistan, which is expected to resist any changes. However, with growing internal pressure and international focus on climate change and clean energy, India seems poised to pursue its interests vigorously.
